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Irish "Death Events" trending over 9,000 in Q2 2022. Nearly 3,000 higher than Q2 2021.
Startling headline and we will get to how I arrived upon it in due course. But before we go forward I want to take you back a little. On St. Stephens day 2021 I compiled an analysis of the unvaxxed COVID statistics and outlined why I believed they overstated the true rate of the unvaxxed’s consumption of hospital and ICU beds. Part of my analysis was based on the weekly Deaths and COVID cases series that the Central Statistics Office were producing at the time.
I was able then to utilize a separate set of statistics that the Health Surveillance Protection Centre produce on COVID and draw some conclusions about gaps in the data capture and obviously then problems with some of the headline figures produced in their reports. Not incidentally, these same numbers and percentages were headline news in December 2021 especially at the outset of the omicron wave. As we know now, the hammering of the unvaxxed during that period was merely an attempt to coerce any waverers into vaccination.
What aided me was the facility to pull data from two different public bodies producing COVID statistics. A kind of utilization of the adage that sometimes the right hand doesn’t realise what the left hand is up to sort of thing. For this analysis I am taking the same approach.
That unvaxxed post above went semi-viral. Now, let me relate to you the difference between a post of mine going viral and say a 3,000 word piece in the Sunday Independent going viral. My article to date has had about 25,000 views which would be about 20,000 more looks than one of my posts that receives above average viewership. Long time readers will have heard me mention previously that my first foray into the written word was on the subject of mixed martial arts. Conor McGregor was still flying high at the time yet grass-roots mixed martial arts was struggling to put on events. There was significant push back from Official Ireland at the time. Official Ireland hates MMA to say the least about it.
Joe Brolly wrote a piece in the Sunday Independent on this MMA subject during this period at the height of one these flare ups between official Ireland and grass-roots MMA. Suffice to say old Joe wasn’t a big fan of MMA activity disturbing his weekly homilies on all things GAA. That Brolly piece received over 1,000,000 hits.
I’d link to the actual Brolly piece here but sure a million hits on that thing is more than enough. I know the number because Joe Brolly couldn’t resist regaling his audience, in his follow up article, on the subject, the following week. So, you could say that in 2018 1 million hits was considered extremely viral in the mainstream Irish media. I say this merely to highlight the mountain we are up against in trying to counter the mainstream narrative on anything covid related. So, in that regard the vaccine skeptics are facing an uphill struggle not dissimilar to grass-roots MMA in 2018.
The core statistics for my original piece were based off a December 10th 2021 report by the CSO. And a couple of other reports from the same series. A curious thing happened after I wrote this article. The CSO never again produced statistics on COVID Deaths and cases. I waited and waited. But none ever came.
December 10th was the last week the CSO produced its COVID-19 Insights volume. Which in and of itself is odd. As the two months, post December 10th, saw Ireland hit with more cases of the disease than in the previous 18 months combined. If there was ever a time to analyze COVID transmission December 2021, Janaury 2022 and February 2022 were the months to report on it. This avenue of statistical analysis died though and so too did my ability to weave certain statistical threads
Why did they stop producing these reports?
I suppose we can only go into hypothesis mode now. But one could argue that the statistics were starting to skew badly away from the mainstream narrative. It was becoming ever more obvious that vaccination was not stopping people from contracting COVID. As we all know now, Corona paid a yuletide visit to almost every house in the country last Christmas. The mainstream narrative no longer held weight, particularly the one that said:
The unvaxxed population are a clear and present danger to themselves and more particularly others.
Why do I bring all this up today?
I bring it up because I have seen another set of statistics begin to go a little bit south from the Official Ireland point of view. The all-cause mortality statistics. As you can see from the below statistics Ireland recorded roughly 1,300 more deaths in 2021 than 2020. Now, I’ve seen many people read a lot into this increase but on its own it doesn’t really tell us much. To my mind, these are very bare comparisons and deaths can be open to non-statistically relevant fluctuations year to year. If these deaths are in some way vaccine related it was a trickle as opposed to a flood at the end of 2021. Or so it seemed.
However where things get interesting and more promising for the vaccine skeptic is when you zoom the lens in on Q4 2021. The death statistics for that three month period saw an excess of just shy of 1,230 deaths over Q4 2020.
One way of framing that is to say that nearly all of the 2021 surplus deaths occurred in the final quarter of the year. A quarter incidentally when every age cohort had a month or two at least to avail of the double jab. And also a period when many older people had already begun receiving their third shots.
Again, one quarter of lop-sided death figures could be an anomaly. But it is an interesting thread to pull on nonetheless.
Now, if the hypothesis about the underplayed danger of the vaccines is to survive rigorous examination we would expect to see the same trend continue in Q1 2022 as we noted in Q4 2021. Unfortunately, we do not yet have the data for Q1 2022 deaths.
However, what we do have though is a very worrying statistic from deathevents.gov.ie . In short, this site records weekly death events in Ireland. This seems to be a rolling 8 week recording of all death events in the country and the information is then distributed to various public bodies.
The Death Events is a service that distributes information on death events to public sector bodies.
This information contains details on all deaths notified to the General Register Office. It is currently updated every Friday lunchtime.
There are currently 1309277 death events published between Dec. 31, 1980 and June 3, 2022.
I assume this register notifies the different government agencies affected by a persons death. So that they may record the fact on various social welfare payment platforms, property registers and revenue systems. And doesn’t yet have enough data to establish cause of death. So bear that in mind. But in the past 8 weeks according to this tracker there have been 5,923 recorded death events in Ireland.
Now, what we can attempt to do here is compare this most recent 8 week period of deaths with the 13 week Q2 2021 death statistics to see how they match up. So in Q2 2021 6,700 deaths were recorded against the 5,923 recorded in the last 8 weeks on the death event tracker. If we assume the same rate of death for the next 5 weeks as the previous 8 weeks and extrapolate that out to a 13 week number for the purposes of comparison with Q2 2021 and Q2 2020 deaths, it should give us a fair indication of what way deaths are tracking in the state. Up or down. And to possibly see if this Q4 2021 CSO death data was an anomaly or indicative of the beginnings of a new trend. Again, bear in mind this is something of a jump and should only be used for trending purposes.
If we do a mathematical calculation of these death event statistics it indicates that the number of deaths in Ireland for a 13 week period from April 15th out to mid July 2022 is tracking at over 9,300 deaths for the three month period. This works out at almost 3,000 more deaths than Q2 2021 and even 1,000 more deaths than Q2 2020. Remember too, Q2 2020 was the height of the 1st wave mania and one of the high water-mark COVID-19 death wave periods. Supposedly. Even if death events were to suddenly stop happening over the next 5 weeks it would be unlikely for this tracker to come under 9,000 come the end of this current 13 week period. The other point of note is that this is a weekly tracker. While there may be some anomalies week to week it is unlikely to contain a dump of 2021 deaths in it. Or if it does some people in our civil service division need to become part of our unemployment statistics.
It would seem we are trending to record more deaths in Q2 of 2022 than even at the height of COVID in Q2 2020 and worryingly looking at 3,000 more deaths in the current quarter than Q2 2021. Obviously, these figure come with all the usual health warnings but with trends like this the vaccine doomsayers ain’t going anywhere anytime soon. The death trends in Ireland are helping their hypothesis at the moment and certainly not hurting it.
I’d advise people to start pressurizing the CSO in case someone gets it into their head to delay publishing the Q1 2022 vital statistics.
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