153% increase in Irish Exports to US indicate the end is nigh.
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Yesterday, the Central Statistics Office released Irish export data revealing the US multi-national sector is reaching peak panic and stockpiling of Irish produced US goods. The Irish export statistics in the United states are quite startling up over 150% in the year to date and indicative of an economy artificial overheating and likely to result in a year of two very different halves.
Total Exports of goods had a total value of €134.4 billion in the first five months of 2025 compared with the same period last year, an increase of €42.9 billion (+46.9%).
Exports of Medical & Pharmaceutical Products grew by €5.8 billion (+73.9%) to €13.7 billion in May 2025 compared with May 2024 (€7.9 billion). This represented 58.7% of total export goods in May 2025.
Quite clearly, the US based motherships of globalism are expecting tariffs to hit hard very soon and are stockpiling huge quantities of goods produced in Ireland ahead of August’s European tariff deadline. The acceleration of exports in the Pharma sector in May 2025 indicates this sector are bracing themselves for a tsunami with exports jumping 73.9% from May 2024.
Total exports across all sectors into the United States in May 2025 are as follows:
Exports to the US increased by €4.9 billion (+86.5%) to €10.6 billion in May 2025 compared with May 2024 (€5.7 billion).
Year to date, January to May 2025 exports of goods to the US amounted to €70.8 billion, an increase of €42.8 billion (+153%) compared with the same period last year (€28 billion).
I don’t believe Ireland has ever seen a 153%, year on year, increase in exports over a five month period into the United States at any point in the last 30 years of Irish economic expansion.
This is very likely to lead to a sharp reverse very, very quickly over the second half of the year. Regardless of whether a tariff regime is implemented on August 1st or not. Nothing seems certain within the Trump White House at the present moment as tensions and struggle mount with the administration but even if the tariff regime were to be further postponed, this huge stockpiling will likely be run down over the second half of the year. If the 30% tariff regime is implemented as promised the shock will be felt almost immediately.
This artificial ballooning of Irish exports in the first half of 2025 might explain the almost surreal energy around the country this year. On the one hand, things seem like they have never been better for many sectors, yet on the other, a gloomy anxiety this situation will change quite suddenly and abruptly.
Yesterday, also saw the release of the Irish residential property price index and unfortunately this market is also at peak bonkers. With rural Ireland seeing even house price increases than Dublin with an 8.7%, year on year, increase in the last 12 months.
The National Residential Property Price Index (RPPI) increased by 7.9% in the 12 months to May 2025, up from 7.6% in the year to April 2025.
Property prices in Dublin rose by 6.9% and prices outside Dublin were up by 8.7% compared with May 2024.
The median price of a dwelling purchased in the 12 months to May 2025 was €370,000.
Based on the evidence, the last six months of the year promise to be very bumpy. This type of astronomical growth is unsustainable not just in the long to medium term but the short term too.
It’s starting to feel like 2007 with steroids now.
Buckle your seat-belts.
Link to CSO Residential House price index
Link to CSO Export data May 2025
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I don't even pretend to understand what this all means, or for that matter, anything much about money. I know that my wee brother lost his business and home following on the last bank bailout in 2008. It feels like deja vu all over again!
Our beloved homeland is run my incompetents and charlatans, when we need real leaders.
I'm comforted by my mammy's aphorism-"money is the root of all evil, but it's very handy when you're going to the shops". Makes sense. We'll all be shopping less often, it seems.
Get the crash helmets on I'd say.